Friday, July 17, 2009

Geopolitics Affect Dollar

The narrative in forex markets had recently become so cut-and-dried, that investors may have forgotten that in the long-term, a variety of factors weigh on currencies. Last week, they were sternly reminded of this fact when tensions in the Middle East boiled over and sent the Dollar racing downwards. An Iranian missile launch sparked the initial uproar, but was quickly followed by unrelated violence in Turkey and Iraq. First, the price of oil skyrocketed, and then the Dollar fell, consistent with the inverse correlation which has been observed between the two commodities. It is unlikely that geopolitical tensions will supercede the macroeconomic situation; investors continue to monitor the credit crisis and interest rate differentials with vigilance. Nonetheless, the events in the Mid East served as a warning against tunnel visions when trading forex. Reuters reports:
Analysts said geopolitics could soon take a back seat again once macroeconomic newsflow picks up after a lack of first tier economic releases from U.S. or euro zone.

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